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Revmag

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Forecasted Questions
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Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 01, 2024 08:03AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025 Oct 1, 2024 0%
No 99% Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025 Oct 1, 2024 100%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 01, 2024 08:03AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 01, 2024 08:03AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 0% 2%
Latvia 0% 1%
Lithuania 0% 1%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 01, 2024 08:03AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 7% 7%
Armenia 0% 1%
Georgia 7% 3%
Kazakhstan 0% 1%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 01, 2024 08:03AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 4% 4%
Kyiv 2% 1%
Odesa 1% 1%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 25, 2024 03:58PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 1% 2%
Oman 1% 2%
Qatar 1% 1%
Saudi Arabia 6% 3%
Tunisia 1% 1%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 25, 2024 03:58PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 Oct 25, 2024 1%
No 100% Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 Oct 25, 2024 99%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 25, 2024 03:58PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 Dec 25, 2024 0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 25, 2024 03:58PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 1%
No 96% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 25, 2024 03:58PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 1%
No 97% 99%
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