RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Feb 26, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will Hezbollah launch a missile that impacts more than 10 kilometers into Israel over the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 26, 2024 and Feb 26, 2024)	0.293845
Feb 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 20, 2024 and Feb 20, 2024)	0.0
Feb 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 6, 2024 and Feb 6, 2024)	0.000116
Feb 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 6, 2024 and Feb 6, 2024)	0.001542
Jan 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 20, 2023 and Jan 20, 2024)	0.0
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC	Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?	0.05845
Jan 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2023 and Jan 6, 2024)	-0.000571
Jan 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2023 and Jan 6, 2024)	-0.000019

Revmag

About: