Revmag

Trend is going to remain it seems

Updating

Ethiopia, most likely, and last default was <1 year ago.

And as for the other nations, Kenya likely to weather the storm for the next year, and Nigeria is mostly safe, as it has a strong economy for now.

And they are heavily linked to China also, and collapse can trigger a domino effect here.

Updating

For Argentina specifically, data points like President's stronghold + support from IMF from helping it makes it less likely

And for Bolivia, might be a while that is has happened before ( the 1980s), so might want to keep it that way

And for Ecuador, data points like its support from IMF, and the timelines are quite short.

Might face difficulties in retaining control, given the increasing tensions with the Arab tribes, and given the timespan is quite long here, will increase the probabilities. And given elections results can also happen a significant effect, as policies enacted by Trump will further establish the paradigm whether it is supporting or not

Though China has made significant progress and wants to erase its reliance on other nations, reports suggest it still lags far behind, in terms of the core aspects like precision and accuracy, the problem here is high volume manufacturing with high precision here.

Current data inclines towards a recovery rather than a decline( although the past data shows that it might be in order). The risk from first one is most, as anything can happen, and with the AI wave going, it can also come crushing down, and with it, it can take the economy down. But the affects of an economic collapse will be very severe, as its one of the most important economies. But reports by Bloomberg say its after Ukraine at most risk of debt crisis. The highest inflation rate that went was around 40% for Egypt

Germany has faced distress because of the war, as indicated by its reliance on the Russians for gas. And considering the stats for 2022 and 2023, there is an increase of 25% because of the war, but a year since the war, it went down by 11%. And for Ukraine also, it went up by 23% and then down by 5%.

 So based on this, if things remain as usual, its should fall in the bracket of 60-69%. But if Germans continue to face surge pricing and disruption in supply demand because of the war, more unpredictable things can happen. But Germany still maintains their military support for Ukraine, so if the war still goes on, and doesn't escalate, the percentage can go higher.

Given the current situation is Germany's support for Ukraine, it is bound to be higher than 50% ( and given even when there was no war, the stats were 41%, and during the buildup of the war, it got around 53%, when things were seemingly normal, so its bound to be greater than that).