Confirmed previous forecast
1.384861
Relative Brier Score
622
Forecasts
20
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 43 | 398 | 302 | 1076 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 40 | 89 | 65 | 182 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 27 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Kharkiv
2%
(0%)
Kyiv
1%
(0%)
Odesa
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
7%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
21%
(+10%)
Yes
79%
(-10%)
No
Trend is going to remain it seems
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(-6%)
Angola
11%
(-7%)
Kenya
46%
(-2%)
Ethiopia
3%
(0%)
Nigeria
Updating
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Angola
18%
Kenya
48%
Ethiopia
3%
Nigeria
Ethiopia, most likely, and last default was <1 year ago.
And as for the other nations, Kenya likely to weather the storm for the next year, and Nigeria is mostly safe, as it has a strong economy for now.
And they are heavily linked to China also, and collapse can trigger a domino effect here.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
(+8%)
Argentina
20%
(+11%)
Bolivia
14%
(+3%)
Ecuador
Updating
Files