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The single most likely cause that Putin would not be in office by May 2024 is death or a very serious health issue. Actuarial tables tell us that there’s about a 5% chance a Russian male born in 1952 will die in the coming year. 4 months (or 1/3 of a year) between now and May makes that a 1.6% chance. That Putin likely has better health care available than the average Russian male cancels out rumors that he may already be suffering from health problems.