-0.00019
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
The single most likely cause that Putin would not be in office by May 2024 is death or a very serious health issue. Actuarial tables tell us that there’s about a 5% chance a Russian male born in 1952 will die in the coming year. 4 months (or 1/3 of a year) between now and May makes that a 1.6% chance. That Putin likely has better health care available than the average Russian male cancels out rumors that he may already be suffering from health problems.