Yes because last thing Arab leaders outside of Iran and their western ally after the challenges in Israel want is a war in Middle East which can't be won for long time
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This forecast expired on Aug 29, 2024 10:25PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
62%
Yes
Jul 29, 2024 to Jan 29, 2025
38%
No
Jul 29, 2024 to Jan 29, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It could be delayed
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This forecast expired on Jul 29, 2024 11:02PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(-19%)
Yes
Jun 29, 2024 to Dec 29, 2024
80%
(+19%)
No
Jun 29, 2024 to Dec 29, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
I think state department will lead to two state solution and it will tamper it
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I could be early with prediction but not wrong
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
74%
(0%)
Yes
26%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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This forecast expired on Jun 30, 2024 06:08PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
39%
(0%)
Yes
May 31, 2024 to Nov 30, 2024
61%
(0%)
No
May 31, 2024 to Nov 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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Most of AI research is not the most cited by Chinese team