Yes because last thing Arab leaders outside of Iran and their western ally after the challenges in Israel want is a war in Middle East which can't be won for long time
-0.312408
Relative Brier Score
39
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 39 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 14 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 13 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Decoding Disinformation,
Mission: AI Advancement,
Future Bowl
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 29, 2024 10:25PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
62%
Yes
Jul 29, 2024 to Jan 29, 2025
38%
No
Jul 29, 2024 to Jan 29, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It could be delayed
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 29, 2024 11:02PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(-19%)
Yes
Jun 29, 2024 to Dec 29, 2024
80%
(+19%)
No
Jun 29, 2024 to Dec 29, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
I think state department will lead to two state solution and it will tamper it
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I could be early with prediction but not wrong
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
74%
(0%)
Yes
26%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 30, 2024 06:08PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
39%
(0%)
Yes
May 31, 2024 to Nov 30, 2024
61%
(0%)
No
May 31, 2024 to Nov 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Most of AI research is not the most cited by Chinese team