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RyanBeck

Ryan Beck
About:

I'm the Forecasting Program Coordinator at Metaculus. Formerly a bridge engineer and I've also written some sci-fi.

GJOpen Profile: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/87827

Metaculus Profile: https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/117502/

"... the strength of opinion in each individual, and its practical influence on his conduct, depend much on the number which he supposes to have entertained the same opinion. The reason of man, like man himself, is timid and cautious when left alone and acquires firmness and confidence in proportion to the number with which it is associated." -Federalist No. 49

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jul 29, 2022 01:55PM UTC How much revenue will Intel report for the second quarter of 2022? 0.050953
Jul 28, 2022 07:10PM UTC Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023? -0.02277
Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM UTC Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022? 0.029547
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM UTC Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022) -0.212438
Jul 15, 2022 01:10PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Aug 2022 -0.003519
Jul 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 3, 2022 and Jul 3, 2022) 0.001547
Jul 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2022 H1 0.246193
Jul 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years? - 2022 H1 0.211008
Jun 15, 2022 01:12PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Jul 2022 0.010107
Jun 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between May 3, 2022 and Jun 3, 2022) 0.001484
Jun 02, 2022 01:40PM UTC What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022? -0.114576
May 31, 2022 03:08PM UTC Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022? -0.149641
May 25, 2022 02:09PM UTC Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022? -0.001838
May 15, 2022 01:00PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Jun 2022 -0.058598
May 06, 2022 09:00PM UTC What will be the end of day closing price of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) on 6 May 2022? -0.038396
May 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022) 0.00142
May 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll? 0.166893
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? -0.0645
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM UTC When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? -0.05461
Apr 27, 2022 09:00PM UTC When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD? -0.091752
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