RyanBeck

Ryan Beck
About:

I'm the Forecasting Program Coordinator at Metaculus. Formerly a bridge engineer and I've also written some sci-fi.

GJOpen Profile: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/87827

Metaculus Profile: https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/117502/

"... the strength of opinion in each individual, and its practical influence on his conduct, depend much on the number which he supposes to have entertained the same opinion. The reason of man, like man himself, is timid and cautious when left alone and acquires firmness and confidence in proportion to the number with which it is associated." -Federalist No. 49

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? 0.005674
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? 0.002026
    Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024) -0.186002
    Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023? -0.004
    Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024) 0.000021
    Feb 20, 2024 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 20, 2024 and Feb 20, 2024) 0.000187
    Feb 1, 2024 05:00AM Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023? 0.001659
    Jan 20, 2024 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 20, 2023 and Jan 20, 2024) 0.000135
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023? -0.094129
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? 0.002894
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023? -0.094101
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023? 0.020231
    Dec 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 20, 2023 and Dec 20, 2023) 0.000153
    Nov 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 20, 2023 and Nov 20, 2023) 0.0002
    Oct 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 20, 2023 and Oct 20, 2023) 0.0002
    Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? 0.014975
    Sep 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 20, 2023 and Sep 20, 2023) 0.0002
    Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023? -0.030989
    Sep 10, 2023 04:00PM Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive? -0.117199
    Aug 28, 2023 05:09PM What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (October 2021 through September 2022)? -0.009008
     
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