43rd
Accuracy Rank

RyanBeck

Ryan Beck
About:

I'm the Forecasting Program Coordinator at Metaculus. Formerly a bridge engineer and I've also written some sci-fi.

GJOpen Profile: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/87827

Metaculus Profile: https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/117502/

"... the strength of opinion in each individual, and its practical influence on his conduct, depend much on the number which he supposes to have entertained the same opinion. The reason of man, like man himself, is timid and cautious when left alone and acquires firmness and confidence in proportion to the number with which it is associated." -Federalist No. 49

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2022 Season Stats

-1.241541

Relative Brier Score

415

Forecasts

384

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 17 5 902
Comments 0 0 1 0 289
Questions Forecasted 0 0 11 5 96
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 1 0 642
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
RyanBeck made their 8th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Feb 22, 2024 04:36PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Jan 22, 2024 to Jul 22, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
RyanBeck made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Feb 22, 2024 04:36PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
17% (-3%)
Yes
Jan 22, 2024 to Jul 22, 2024

Coming down toward the crowd a little, though remaining higher than the crowd because I think tensions are high in the region and I think Israel's response to Gaza suggests it sees strength and deterrence as a key part of its response, which might mean retaliation against Iran for whatever role it might have played.

Files
New Prediction

Down on passage of time.

Files
New Prediction

Down on passage of time.

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
RyanBeck made their 7th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Jan 9, 2024 04:35PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Dec 9, 2023 to Jun 9, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
RyanBeck made their 2nd forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Jan 9, 2024 04:35PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20% (-10%)
Yes
Dec 9, 2023 to Jun 9, 2024

Coming down toward the crowd a bit, but I still think there's a higher chance of this occurring than the crowd indicates.

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction

The year is almost over.

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