43rd
Accuracy Rank

RyanBeck

Ryan Beck
About:
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-0.183633

Relative Brier Score

5

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 16 5 902
Comments 0 0 1 0 855
Questions Forecasted 0 0 11 5 96
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 1 0 642
 Definitions
New Prediction
RyanBeck
made their 8th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Feb 22, 2024 04:36PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Jan 22, 2024 to Jul 22, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
RyanBeck
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Feb 22, 2024 04:36PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
17% (-3%)
Yes
Jan 22, 2024 to Jul 22, 2024

Coming down toward the crowd a little, though remaining higher than the crowd because I think tensions are high in the region and I think Israel's response to Gaza suggests it sees strength and deterrence as a key part of its response, which might mean retaliation against Iran for whatever role it might have played.

Files
New Prediction

Down on passage of time.

Files
New Prediction

Down on passage of time.

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
RyanBeck
made their 7th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jan 9, 2024 04:35PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Dec 9, 2023 to Jun 9, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
RyanBeck
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jan 9, 2024 04:35PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20% (-10%)
Yes
Dec 9, 2023 to Jun 9, 2024

Coming down toward the crowd a bit, but I still think there's a higher chance of this occurring than the crowd indicates.

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

The year is almost over.

Files
Files
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