RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC	Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?	0.010971
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?	0.118708
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	0.084973
Apr 10, 2023 09:00PM UTC	What will be the highest average price recorded for a gallon of diesel in the U.S. between 6 Feb 2023 and 10 Apr 2023?	0.327491
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	0.516637
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	-0.000835
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023?	0.143913
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?	0.326359
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 3, 2023 and Mar 1, 2023)	0.020632
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	-0.000423
Mar 17, 2023 02:12PM UTC	Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023?	0.043872
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.002572
Feb 01, 2023 06:46PM UTC	Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?	0.00096
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	0.000769
Dec 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022)	0.02394
Nov 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022)	0.714903
Nov 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 3, 2022 and Nov 3, 2022)	0.78671
Oct 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 3, 2022 and Oct 3, 2022)	0.0871

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