SOUZACaio

There is no more evidence of Russian intention of invasion of another country in the next years. Russia did not obtain a clear success invading Ukraine, moreover, showed how its army is unprepared for war. At the same time, European nations are more prepared for a possible confrontation against Russia in a likely scenario as well as are more united on this concern.

Albeit Kazakhstan has denied some Russia's requirements and questioned some actions, it is still a strong allied. Georgia, which, lived a separatist issue frozen since 2008 in Abkhazia, has elected a pro Russia government in the last elections in the region. Armenia, after the abandon of Russia involvement in the maintenance of peace with Azerbaijan, has searched for new allies as well as is not a direct interest for Russian auspicious. And Moldova, although existing the separatist region of Transnistria, is not so significative for Russia, even searching for approximation to European institutions.

That is, the result of Ukranian invasion, the ongoing Trump administration in the United States as well as his way to lead world geopolitics, and the reorganization of Europe toward a non-dependence on the United States support and rearmament of its States are facts working as impediment to new Russian military operations or geopolitical maneuvers.  

They are three countries living economic and financial crisis, however, by different reasons. Bolivia, although are living uncertainty in the next elections due to unsolved issues of Evo's participation, which departs international investors, as well as has lived a worsening of public debts, still has more capacity than the others to resolve this situation and avoid entering in default with creditors, what has low probability.

Ecuador has seen its internal budget worsens, nonetheless, still can solve this problem through selling of oil and other commodities in the international market. Of course, It needs quickly guarantee its serious issues of violence toward to improve its attractiveness of external investors and enterprises to stablish the economy.

Argentine, even employing the traditional measures guided by Washington consensus from 1980, has reached few economic and financial goals. Its reduction of inflation, public spending, and a slowing of currency devaluation have costed millions of nationals launched to poverty, unbalance value of Dolar in comparison of Peso as well as the ongoing emission of currency in internal market. Moreover, still are economists of the country negotiating with IMF and other creditors trying to delay the next round of loan paying. If it does not occur, a default is likely.