SOUZACaio

There is no auspicious toward a complete ceasefire agreement by Russian side. Albeit Ukraine already show itself ready to stablish a pause in the ongoing conflict, at the same time, Russia disrespected any intentions toward a long-term or even a short-term peace.

Trump and his representatives have not reached any commitment by the aggressor nation on productive negotiations because Putin does not intend stop the war soon. Even through mineral resources deal or employment of European peacekeeping troops in Ukraine, the Russian president does not want to lay down his weapons. Moreover, in the last days, Russia has conquered large eastern areas in Ukraine, while Ukraine has no more advanced or obtained military gains.

Although this ongoing conflict has costed a high price for Russian, making thousands of victims, as well as costed hard economic sanctions, Putin's country is able to carry on with the battles for at least for one more year. Also, the alignment of Russian partners as Iran, North Korea, and China has contributed to Russian keep the hostilities. It has been part of a long-term Russian State strategy begun years ago of reshaping of the global geopolitical path and rebuild of its bases under the idea of competition between West and East as well as a new multipolar world order drafted by Putin.

Therefore, in the next weeks, a ceasefire agreement is unlikely to be sign by both sides of the war. Putin does not intend to do this as well as Zelensky will not do this without actual evidence of a cessation of hostilities.

Although Ukraine shows itself as a country that respect international law as well as a possible ceasefire agreement, the same cannot be noted from Russia. For instance, while Ukraine accepted conditions of a deal with Russia led by the United States, Russia performed deadly attacks against Ukrainian territory. Hence, even if a ceasefire was signed by both nations, Russia likely would violate it.

Ukraine government noted that the American support of its war efforts against Russia is no more so strong and undoubtable currently under Trump presidency as was during Biden's administration. Even having the commitment of the European nations to combat the Russian expansionism, mainly the United Kingdom and France, as well as its own capabilities, clearly it is not enough to bear the high warfare cost as well as damages caused by this ongoing conflict. Moreover, Trump staff already became evident that Ukraine has a short deadline to accept a ceasefire condition and agree with territorial loses.

On another hand, Russia obtained territorial gains in recent months, producing more pressure toward Ukraine acceptance of defeat as well as a freezing of battles in the current positions of its, that is, considering the already gains. Nonetheless, Russia conditions to keep in war are not good. The awful number of dead soldiers or permanent injured that the country reached, the needing of employment of the North Korean troops, the necessity to demobilize other militaries in different regions of the world where Russia has interests, the buying of ammunitions as well as military equipment from different partners, and the damages suffered by Ukrainian attacks performed by drones or missiles in the core of Russian territory are aspects considered on Putin's decision to sing a ceasefire deal or to freeze the war for some weeks, at least.

Although Russia is enjoying a position of undamaged winner of the conflict which itself started, evidence show an opposite scenario: Europeans nations are willing to deploy troops on the Ukrainian ground, Ukrainian attacks have been significative, and the capacity to unite soldiers has become gradually harder. This ongoing war already disrupted deeply supply chains worldwide as well as disturbed economies throughout the planet. Also, in view of the American interests in mineral resources localized in the Ukraine ground, Trump's way to negotiate with Russia, which realizes openly that Russia has hegemony over its former satellites of USSR, will demand a pause in the conflict to American enterprises start their mine operations.

Therefore, a ceasefire deal is expected even in the next weeks. Perhaps it might not be so long as world hopes, however, will be sign to Russia and Ukranian reorganized their military capabilities at least or to the European countries, the United States, Russia, and Ukraine draw and present a long-term a peace deal.