RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 11, 2024 02:44PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Latvia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 20, 2024 02:31PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	0%	4%	-4%	-2%
Kyiv	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
Odesa	0%	1%	-1%	-2%

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 04:25PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025	Oct 1, 2024	16%	-11%	+4%
No	95%	Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025	Oct 1, 2024	84%	+11%	-4%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 04:28PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	5%	-5%	-2%
No	100%	95%	+5%	+2%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 04:30PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025	Dec 1, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 04:36PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	60%	Sep 1, 2024 to Sep 1, 2025	Oct 1, 2024	87%	-27%	+56%
No	40%	Sep 1, 2024 to Sep 1, 2025	Oct 1, 2024	13%	+27%	-56%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 04:37PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	22%	-12%	-15%
No	90%	78%	+12%	+15%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 09, 2024 05:25PM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025	Oct 9, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025	Oct 9, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 09, 2024 05:28PM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025	Oct 9, 2024	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025	Oct 9, 2024	99%	+1%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 09, 2024 05:29PM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025	Oct 9, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025	Oct 9, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

SamIam

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