Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 11, 2024 02:44PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jul 11, 2024 02:44PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Lithuania | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 20, 2024 02:31PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 20, 2024 02:31PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kharkiv | 0% | 4% | -4% | -2% |
Kyiv | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
Odesa | 0% | 1% | -1% | -2% |
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 04:25PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Sep 01, 2024 04:25PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025 | Oct 1, 2024 | 16% | -11% | +4% |
No | 95% | Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025 | Oct 1, 2024 | 84% | +11% | -4% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 04:28PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Sep 01, 2024 04:28PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 5% | -5% | -2% |
No | 100% | 95% | +5% | +2% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 04:30PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Sep 01, 2024 04:30PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025 | Dec 1, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 04:36PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Sep 01, 2024 04:36PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 60% | Sep 1, 2024 to Sep 1, 2025 | Oct 1, 2024 | 86% | -26% | +55% |
No | 40% | Sep 1, 2024 to Sep 1, 2025 | Oct 1, 2024 | 14% | +26% | -55% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 04:37PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Sep 01, 2024 04:37PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 10% | 22% | -12% | -15% |
No | 90% | 78% | +12% | +15% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 09, 2024 05:25PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Sep 09, 2024 05:25PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025 | Oct 9, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No | 100% | Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025 | Oct 9, 2024 | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 09, 2024 05:28PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Sep 09, 2024 05:28PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025 | Oct 9, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025 | Oct 9, 2024 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 09, 2024 05:29PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Sep 09, 2024 05:29PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025 | Oct 9, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No | 100% | Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025 | Oct 9, 2024 | 100% | +0% | +0% |