Talks haven not appeared to progress.
-0.119748
Relative Brier Score
28
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 4 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(-3%)
Yes
100%
(+3%)
No
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90%
(+40%)
Yes
Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
10%
(-40%)
No
Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
If Iran responds to the latest Israeli strikes, Israel's next move will be to target the nuclear facilities. Especially if Trump wins and the democrats are a lame duck.
There is a possibility that this happens after January though.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 14, 2024 09:46AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
Yes
Oct 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
50%
No
Oct 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
It seem certain Israel will strike Iran, but a Nuclear facility might be too far. Something less overt and just as impactfl seems more likely.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 14, 2024 09:44AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Oct 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-27%)
Yes
97%
(+27%)
No
Israel will not defeat Hamas by then, and they will not stop.
Files