Confirmed previous forecast
-0.084245
Relative Brier Score
21
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Definitions |
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran Nuclear Program
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Aug 3, 2024 11:22AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 3, 2024 to Jan 3, 2025
50%
(0%)
No
Jul 3, 2024 to Jan 3, 2025
Files
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 3, 2024 11:22AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 3, 2024 to Jan 3, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Jul 3, 2024 to Jan 3, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(0%)
Yes
5%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(+20%)
Yes
70%
(-20%)
No
Something needs to give, but its not in Bibis interest.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 20, 2024 12:59PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(+5%)
Yes
Jun 20, 2024 to Dec 20, 2024
80%
(-5%)
No
Jun 20, 2024 to Dec 20, 2024
Correcting -
Files
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 20, 2024 12:59PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 20, 2024 to Jun 20, 2025
80%
(0%)
No
Jun 20, 2024 to Jun 20, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 14, 2024 08:25AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
(+40%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
50%
(-40%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
Waiting to see how they label US support to Israel.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 13, 2024 05:36PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
97%
(0%)
No
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files