Forecasted Questions
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2024 01:45PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Sep 06, 2024 01:45PM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 3% | 4% | -1% | +0% |
| Kyiv | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Odesa | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2024 01:45PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Sep 06, 2024 01:45PM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +1% |
| Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 04:13PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 04:13PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 84% | -24% | +2% |
| No | 40% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 16% | +24% | -2% |