Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 04:01PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 14, 2024 04:01PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
| Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 04:02PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 14, 2024 04:02PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 2% | 3% | -1% | -1% |
| Kyiv | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Odesa | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 02:44AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 17, 2024 02:44AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | Nov 17, 2024 to Nov 17, 2025 | Feb 17, 2025 | 12% | +48% | +4% |
| No | 40% | Nov 17, 2024 to Nov 17, 2025 | Feb 17, 2025 | 88% | -48% | -4% |