Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 12:28PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Oct 22, 2024 12:28PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 11% | 8% | +3% | +1% |
| Armenia | 7% | 2% | +5% | +0% |
| Georgia | 14% | 4% | +10% | +1% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 12:34PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Oct 22, 2024 12:34PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 | Jan 22, 2025 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 12:45PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Oct 22, 2024 12:45PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | Oct 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2025 | Jan 22, 2025 | 8% | +2% | -1% |
| No | 90% | Oct 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2025 | Jan 22, 2025 | 92% | -2% | +1% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 12:50PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Oct 22, 2024 12:50PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 99% | 97% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 01:04PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 01:04PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 5% | -4% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 95% | +4% | +1% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 01:14PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 01:14PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 01:28PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 01:28PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Latvia | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 01:33PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 01:33PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 2% | -2% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 5% | 6% | -1% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 28% | 95% | 92% | +3% | -1% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 01:37PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 01:37PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 11% | -4% | -3% |
| No | 93% | 89% | +4% | +3% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 01:43PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 01:43PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |