Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2024 07:59PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Sep 18, 2024 07:59PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Moldova | 10% | 7% | +3% | -1% |
Armenia | 7% | 1% | +6% | +0% |
Georgia | 14% | 3% | +11% | +0% |
Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 21, 2024 03:45PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Sep 21, 2024 03:45PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Sep 21, 2024 to Mar 21, 2025 | Dec 21, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 21, 2024 04:02PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Sep 21, 2024 04:02PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 21, 2024 04:04PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Sep 21, 2024 04:04PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 9% | Sep 21, 2024 to Sep 21, 2025 | Dec 21, 2024 | 5% | +4% | +1% |
No | 91% | Sep 21, 2024 to Sep 21, 2025 | Dec 21, 2024 | 95% | -4% | -1% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 04:01PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Sep 23, 2024 04:01PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 99% | 96% | +3% | +0% |
No | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 04:06PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Sep 23, 2024 04:06PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Lithuania | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 04:13PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Sep 23, 2024 04:13PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 5% | -3% | -1% |
No | 98% | 95% | +3% | +1% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 04:17PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Sep 23, 2024 04:17PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kuwait | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Saudi Arabia | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Sep 23, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 27% | 22% | +5% | -10% |
More than or equal to 28% | 73% | 77% | -4% | +10% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 04:32PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Sep 23, 2024 04:32PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 8% | 22% | -14% | -6% |
No | 92% | 78% | +14% | +6% |