This still seems very unlikely to happen in the next six months. The IAEA Board of Governors voted to censure Iran, despite a last-minute offer from Iran to cap its stock of uranium enriched up to 60% purity. In response, Iran has said that it will substantially increase its uranium enrichment capacity by launching a series of new and advanced centrifuges.
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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 11 | 34 | 138 | 138 | 138 |
| Comments | 1 | 4 | 37 | 37 | 37 |
| Questions Forecasted | 11 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 15 | 56 | 56 | 56 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on Feb 22, 2025
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(+1%)
Yes
Nov 22, 2024 to Nov 22, 2025
88%
(-1%)
No
Nov 22, 2024 to Nov 22, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(0%)
Moldova
8%
(0%)
Armenia
4%
(+1%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
34%
(+5%)
Yes
66%
(-5%)
No
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on Dec 18, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(+2%)
Yes
Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025
95%
(-2%)
No
Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025
In my previous rationale, I said: "If Trump wins, you can imagine that he'll try to quickly broker a ceasefire deal in the Middle East and get his friends in Saudi Arabia together with his friends in Israel. However, there are some fundamental hurdles that might still need to be overcome (whether it's the status of Hamas in Gaza or something of a roadmap for a Palestinian state as a precondition for resuming the process), so it's not all about personal relationships."
Trump has now won the election, so I'm increasing my forecast by a couple of percentage points (but not by more than that as I thought he was the slight favourite to win in the first place).
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
There is very little to suggest that this is on the cards, and time is running out. Confirming my forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-10%)
Less than or equal to 59
2%
(-25%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
27%
(-2%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
36%
(+11%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
35%
(+26%)
More than or equal to 90
As of today, there have already been 12 cases of disinformation (the last being on 11 November, though there is probably a reporting lag). Extrapolating out to the rest of the period, this gets us to about 89 cases (and potentially more, accounting for the reporting lag). Significantly updating away from the lowest two bins.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
26%
(0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
63%
(0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
10%
(0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
If the Russia-Ukraine war ends by October-November 2025, which seems more likely now that Trump is set to be President, Germans may be slightly less likely to feel the need to say that Ukraine is an ally when asked in a survey. On the other hand, if Trump forces a harsh deal on Ukraine, the percentage of Germans who say that Ukraine is an ally might increase.
Overall, I am confirming my forecast.
Files
Rounding down my forecast to zero due to the passage of time. There are only eight or so days left for this to happen.