VidurKapur

Rounding down my forecast to zero due to the passage of time. There are only eight or so days left for this to happen.

This still seems very unlikely to happen in the next six months. The IAEA Board of Governors voted to censure Iran, despite a last-minute offer from Iran to cap its stock of uranium enriched up to 60% purity. In response, Iran has said that it will substantially increase its uranium enrichment capacity by launching a series of new and advanced centrifuges. 

Increasing my estimate by a percentage point, not due to the rumours about his health but because of the chatter about his succession.

Increasing my probability estimate for an invasion of Georgia due to the protests in Abkhazia, but only by a percentage point as it looks like the protesters' demands have been met (the investment bill has been withdrawn). The leader of the region has also resigned. This should help to defuse tensions.

Confirming my forecast. On the one hand, time has passed since my last forecast. On the other hand, with Trump returning to the White House, Putin's position is, if anything, more secure now. For example, there is now a decent chance that the war ends with a deal that Putin can sell to the Russian people.

Increasing my probability estimate because Nvidia has now overtaken Apple (again) to become the world's most valuable company by market cap. On balance, though, I still think it's unlikely that it remains in the top spot on 31 May 2025 (we've seen Apple retake the lead before).

In my previous rationale, I said: "If Trump wins, you can imagine that he'll try to quickly broker a ceasefire deal in the Middle East and get his friends in Saudi Arabia together with his friends in Israel. However, there are some fundamental hurdles that might still need to be overcome (whether it's the status of Hamas in Gaza or something of a roadmap for a Palestinian state as a precondition for resuming the process), so it's not all about personal relationships."

Trump has now won the election, so I'm increasing my forecast by a couple of percentage points (but not by more than that as I thought he was the slight favourite to win in the first place).

There is very little to suggest that this is on the cards, and time is running out. Confirming my forecast.

As of today, there have already been 12 cases of disinformation (the last being on 11 November, though there is probably a reporting lag). Extrapolating out to the rest of the period, this gets us to about 89 cases (and potentially more, accounting for the reporting lag). Significantly updating away from the lowest two bins.

If the Russia-Ukraine war ends by October-November 2025, which seems more likely now that Trump is set to be President, Germans may be slightly less likely to feel the need to say that Ukraine is an ally when asked in a survey. On the other hand, if Trump forces a harsh deal on Ukraine, the percentage of Germans who say that Ukraine is an ally might increase.

Overall, I am confirming my forecast.