Ukraine is having trouble in defense of Kharkiv
0.237412
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Kharkiv
2%
Kyiv
3%
Odesa
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Moldova
25%
Armenia
10%
Georgia
2%
Kazakhstan
Reasons
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Yes
65%
No
Faltering support for Ukraine among republicans
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
Laplace’s rule of change not occuring last terms: 1/(4+2). Putin having removed competition, enjoying 70% support, at least, in population, and changed the consittution to allow more terms. The only chance of change is illness or a coup.
Files
Russia will not attack NATO