RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM	From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil?	0.054459
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	0.058737
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?	0.080181
Apr 10, 2023 09:00PM	What will be the highest average price recorded for a gallon of diesel in the U.S. between 6 Feb 2023 and 10 Apr 2023?	0.340733
Apr 5, 2023 07:15PM	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	-0.000113
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	0.011448
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023?	0.0
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?	0.259594
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	0.07335
Mar 22, 2023 04:00PM	How many Chinese Universities will be listed in QS World University Rankings’ top 100 universities for computer science in 2023?	-0.366324
Mar 19, 2023 04:00AM	Will Microsoft's AI-powered “new Bing” be available to the public by 30 April 2023?	-0.260158
Mar 17, 2023 02:12PM	Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023?	-0.009383
Mar 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Sep 1, 2022)	0.010005
Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.020479
Feb 3, 2023 05:00AM	Will China launch more orbital rockets than the U.S. in January 2023?	0.002867
Feb 2, 2023 05:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)	0.002855
Feb 1, 2023 06:46PM	Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?	-0.000185
Jan 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	0.002579
Dec 6, 2022 08:00PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022)	0.002813
Nov 28, 2022 03:46PM	Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?	-0.071503

Date Ended

Question

Relative Brier Score

Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM

From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil?

0.054459

Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM

How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?

0.058737

Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM

Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?

0.080181