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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 24, 2025 12:17PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Dec 24, 2024 to Dec 24, 2025
100%
No
Dec 24, 2024 to Dec 24, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Iran is at a disadvantegious position at the moment. With a strong link between Netanyahu and Trumps government, and Iran's allies in the region like Hezbollah and Syrian governmentare seriously weakened.
So I don't believe Iran will start a direct war. It will avoid direct conflict and invest in modernizing their weapons.
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Why might you be wrong?
Israel or the US might attack iran without provocation.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 30, 2024 10:42PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Nov 30, 2024 to May 30, 2025
80%
No
Nov 30, 2024 to May 30, 2025
North Korea is more likely to make missile/nuclear tests instead of going straight to a war with S. Korea.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 24, 2024 10:47PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
0%
(0%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
The wat has basically already started
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Why do you think you're right?
Conflicts are expanding around the worl, smaller nations are realizing that major powers have pulled back and international organizations.
Iran has realized it needs nuclear weapons to keep israel and US at bay.
Why might you be wrong?
The law of the jungle currently present might prevent some states in taking offensive actions against neighbors, in fear of retaliation from major powers