Manipur had serious conflicts this year, where even ammunition meant for the government was stolen. Fortunately, the deaths caused by those events haven't even breached 500, let alone the figure of 1000. I know of no other brewing event that has this potential.
-0.004816
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I haven't been able to predict violence outbreaks in India very well. It may very well be that an armed conflict in India of monumental scale breaks up in the next 9 days.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(+30%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Luna 25 is going to launch soon.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The launch may not be successful.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Intel
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
This is an initial hunch. I'll revise it soon.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is based on a hunch. Not based on data. So, obviously, it is wrong.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Intel
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Luna 25 crashed.
Why might you be wrong?
The news papers are wrong.