RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 07:31PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	8%	-6%	-5%
No	98%	92%	+6%	+5%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 06:42PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	7%	-5%	-4%
No	98%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	93%	+5%	+4%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 06:44PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	1%	-1%	+1%
No	100%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	99%	+1%	-1%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:51AM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	45%	Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025	Jan 30, 2025	22%	+23%	-6%
No	55%	Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025	Jan 30, 2025	78%	-23%	+6%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 07:50PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	95%	97%	-2%	+1%
No	5%	3%	+2%	-1%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 07:55PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	1%	4%	-3%	+0%
More than or equal to 28%	97%	94%	+3%	+1%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 07:57PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	5%	3%	+2%	-1%
Kyiv	3%	1%	+2%	+0%
Odesa	3%	2%	+1%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 07:58PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	1%	+2%	+0%
No	97%	99%	-2%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 07:58PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

YJAung

Yan Aung

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