RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 01:04PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	10%	9%	+1%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	1%	7%	-6%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 07:31PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	11%	-9%	-2%
No	98%	89%	+9%	+2%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 06:42PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	6%	-4%	-5%
No	98%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	94%	+4%	+5%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 06:44PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:51AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	45%	Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025	Jan 30, 2025	22%	+23%	-6%
No	55%	Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025	Jan 30, 2025	78%	-23%	+6%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 07:42PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	60%	27%	+33%	+6%
No	40%	73%	-33%	-6%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 07:50PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	95%	97%	-2%	+1%
No	5%	3%	+2%	-1%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 07:55PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	1%	6%	-5%	+1%
More than or equal to 28%	97%	92%	+5%	-1%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 07:57PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	5%	4%	+1%	+0%
Kyiv	3%	1%	+2%	+0%
Odesa	3%	3%	+0%	+0%

YJAung

Yan Aung

About: