32nd
Accuracy Rank

YJAung

Brigitte de Graaf
About:

LinkedIn
Show more
View All Badges »
2025 Season Stats

-0.067915

Relative Brier Score
1383900510152025303540
Questions Forecasted
1110-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.911.1
Scored Questions

81

Forecasts

5

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
LessMoreJanFebMarAprSuMoTuWeThFrSa
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 33 368 81 1397
Comments 0 17 113 50 708
Questions Forecasted 0 28 75 39 292
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 1 24 5 117
 Definitions
New Badge
YJAung earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Mar 2025

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
YJAung earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Mar 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
YJAung made their 14th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

lowering for time

Files
Why might you be wrong?

war is unpredictable

Files
New Prediction
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
YJAung made their 19th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12% (+2%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Mar 31, 2026
88% (-2%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Mar 31, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-there-will-be-bombing-if-iran-does-not-make-nuclear-deal-2025-03-30/

Files
Why might you be wrong?
Underestimating incentives for trump to start war with Iran
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
YJAung made their 18th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10% (0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Mar 31, 2026
90% (0%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Mar 31, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
YJAung made their 8th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
YJAung made their 4th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
1% (0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
1% (0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1% (0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
YJAung made their 4th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
98% (0%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
 
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel