Forecasted Questions
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:07PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 01:07PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 6% | -2% | -1% |
No | 96% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 94% | +2% | +1% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:07PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 01:07PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | 22% | -19% | -1% |
No | 97% | 78% | +19% | +1% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:08PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 01:08PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 10% | 11% | -1% | +0% |
No | 90% | 89% | +1% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:08PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 01:08PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:08PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 01:08PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:08PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 01:08PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 | Dec 30, 2024 | 5% | -3% | +0% |
No | 98% | Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 | Dec 30, 2024 | 95% | +3% | +0% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:08PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 01:08PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 67% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 54% | +13% | +4% |
No | 33% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 46% | -13% | -4% |