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agallant121

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Forecasted Questions

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:07PM UTC
(11 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	6%	-2%	-1%
No	96%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	94%	+2%	+1%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:07PM UTC
(11 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	22%	-19%	-1%
No	97%	78%	+19%	+1%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:08PM UTC
(11 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	11%	-1%	+0%
No	90%	89%	+1%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:08PM UTC
(11 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+1%	+0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:08PM UTC
(11 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:08PM UTC
(11 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025	Dec 30, 2024	5%	-3%	+0%
No	98%	Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025	Dec 30, 2024	95%	+3%	+0%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:08PM UTC
(11 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	67%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	54%	+13%	+4%
No	33%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	46%	-13%	-4%