Confirmed previous forecast
1.619747
Relative Brier Score
56
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 44 | 33 | 143 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 15 | 10 | 52 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Oct 30, 2024 01:08PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
67%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
33%
(0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-59%)
Yes
97%
(+59%)
No
Increased fighting in recent weeks has led me to the opposite conclusion.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 30, 2024 01:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
96%
(0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 05:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
67%
Yes
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
33%
No
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Several unstable countries could make this outcome likely. Given the number of nations at risk and Africa's history of such events over the past five years, this scenario appears more probable than not.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(-3%)
Yes
Aug 21, 2024 to Aug 21, 2025
98%
(+3%)
No
Aug 21, 2024 to Aug 21, 2025
Updating
Files