152nd
Accuracy Rank

aggaray

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021) 0.0
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021) 0.036829
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021) 0.000581
Jul 30, 2021 11:11AM UTC What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the first two quarters (January 1 through June 30) of 2021? 0.063727
Jul 01, 2021 05:32PM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive? -0.009069
Jul 01, 2021 05:30PM UTC Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021? 0.016109
Apr 17, 2021 09:56PM UTC How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.546976
Apr 01, 2021 04:51PM UTC How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? 0.157989
Mar 18, 2021 06:27PM UTC What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work? 0.104111
Mar 07, 2021 09:22PM UTC What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? 0.143361
Feb 01, 2021 02:49PM UTC How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? 0.285498
Feb 01, 2021 02:48PM UTC How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? -0.311725
Feb 01, 2021 02:47PM UTC How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? 0.105439
Jan 04, 2021 01:58PM UTC What will the ratio of AI publications to machine learning research job postings be for Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, combined, in 2020? -0.197614
Jan 04, 2021 01:49PM UTC What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? -0.022261
Nov 03, 2020 05:49PM UTC Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020? 1.394211
Nov 03, 2020 02:25PM UTC Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020? -0.033125
Oct 15, 2020 04:00AM UTC Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020? 0.847232
Oct 01, 2020 04:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020? -0.000869
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020? 0.00135
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