152nd
Accuracy Rank

aggaray

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2023 and Jan 6, 2024) 0.003629
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023? 0.422183
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits? 0.299631
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? 0.001927
Dec 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 20, 2023 and Dec 20, 2023) 0.000133
Dec 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023) 0.00036
Dec 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023) 0.001267
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023? 0.291134
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? 0.0
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM UTC Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023? 0.224175
Sep 01, 2023 09:00PM UTC How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023? 0.00908
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will a top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company join the BOTTLE consortium as an industry partner by 31 August 2023? 0.065354
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will 50 or more fatalities be attributed to one or more non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in India? -0.003149
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022? -0.014831
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022? 0.023586
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022? -0.000388
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022? 0.14779
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022? 0.004321
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM UTC Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023? -0.006357
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil? 0.339631
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