Confirmed previous forecast
0.355831
Relative Brier Score
23
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 70 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(-6%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Arrest warrants are piling up, and his party is falling apart.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Popularity with the masses is strong for Imran, but the mob is fickle.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
22%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 499
39%
(0%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
22%
(0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
14%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
3%
(0%)
More than or equal to 2000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
38%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
48%
(0%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
11%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
2%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 749
59%
(0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
29%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
10%
(0%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 3000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-69%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
too much negative publicity associated with AI right now.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
a world war happpens.
Files