144th
Accuracy Rank

amaddox2

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All Time Stats

1.271847

Relative Brier Score

70

Forecasts

5

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 0 0 70
Comments 0 0 0 0 38
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 15
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 5
 Definitions

Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict, Science & Technology, Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector, China Politics, Relations, and Technology, Artificial Intelligence

Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy, Iran Nuclear Program, Quantum Computing, Mission: AI Advancement, Decoding Disinformation

New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Badge
amaddox2 earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Arrest warrants are piling up, and his party is falling apart.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Popularity with the masses is strong for Imran, but the mob is fickle.

Files
New Prediction
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
amaddox2 made their 2nd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
22% (0%)
Less than or equal to 499
39% (0%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
22% (0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
14% (0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
3% (0%)
More than or equal to 2000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
amaddox2 made their 2nd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
38% (0%)
Less than or equal to 49
48% (0%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
11% (0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
2% (0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 200
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
New Prediction
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?
amaddox2 made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Less than or equal to 749
59% (0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
29% (0%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
10% (0%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 3000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

too much negative publicity associated with AI right now.

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Why might you be wrong?

a world war happpens.

Files
Files
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