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New Prediction

Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?

annalise made their 1st forecast (view all):

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Probability

Answer

Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova

10%

Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia

Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova

80%

No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova

initial forecast

Files

Oct 29, 2022 05:42AM UTC

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annalise earned a new badge:

My First Question

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month?

annalise made their 1st forecast (view all):

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This forecast expired on Nov 29, 2022 05:40AM

Probability

Answer

Forecast Window

Yes

Oct 29, 2022 to Nov 29, 2022

only a week left so much less likely than i might have guessed two weeks ago