Russia may test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month because tensions with Ukraine are mounting
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This forecast expired on Nov 6, 2022 08:34PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
61%
Yes
Oct 6, 2022 to Nov 6, 2022
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
Russia may not test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month because it may cause global conflict
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Why do you think you're right?
2035 is a short time period, so it may not be feasible for states to follow California
Why might you be wrong?
States care about emissions, political reasons