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annaxie3

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All Time Stats

0.780988

Relative Brier Score

3

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
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Forecasts 0 0 0 0 3
Comments 0 0 0 0 3
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 2
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions

Most Active Topics:
Science & Technology, Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector, International Diplomacy & Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War

New Prediction
On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?
annaxie3 made their 1st forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
50%
Less than 5
28%
Between 5 and 11, inclusive
14%
Between 12 and 17, inclusive
8%
More than or equal to 18
Why do you think you're right?

2035 is a short time period, so it may not be feasible for states to follow California

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Why might you be wrong?

States care about emissions, political reasons 

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annaxie3 earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month?
annaxie3 made their 1st forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Nov 6, 2022 08:34PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
61%
Yes
Oct 6, 2022 to Nov 6, 2022
Why do you think you're right?

Russia may test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month because tensions with Ukraine are mounting

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Why might you be wrong?

Russia may not test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month because it may cause global conflict 

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