RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Feb 01, 2021 02:48PM UTC	How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.010383
Nov 03, 2020 05:49PM UTC	Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?	-0.02648
Nov 03, 2020 02:25PM UTC	Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?	-0.111048
Oct 31, 2020 03:04PM UTC	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the third quarter of 2020 (ending September 30)?	0.019667
Oct 21, 2020 02:47PM UTC	What percentage of O-1 visas will go to Chinese nationals between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.007135
Oct 15, 2020 04:00AM UTC	Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?	-0.035089
Oct 01, 2020 02:37PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	-0.026587
Oct 01, 2020 04:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?	-0.000191
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM UTC	Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?	0.583421
Sep 01, 2020 01:31PM UTC	Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?	-0.030598
Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC	What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?	0.193545
Jul 18, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the U.S. government cancel or shorten the 24-month STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by July 17, 2020?	-0.011164
Jul 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the Indian government continue the TikTok ban through July 14, 2020?	-0.001538

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