RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 31, 2022 02:28PM	How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?	0.01437
Jul 30, 2021 11:11AM	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the first two quarters (January 1 through June 30) of 2021?	-0.068224
Jul 1, 2021 05:32PM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?	-0.003348
Jun 1, 2021 06:44PM	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?	0.000313
Feb 1, 2021 02:48PM	How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.010383
Nov 3, 2020 05:49PM	Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?	-0.02648
Nov 3, 2020 02:25PM	Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?	-0.111048
Oct 31, 2020 03:04PM	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the third quarter of 2020 (ending September 30)?	0.019667
Oct 21, 2020 02:47PM	What percentage of O-1 visas will go to Chinese nationals between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.007135
Oct 15, 2020 04:00AM	Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?	-0.035089
Oct 1, 2020 02:37PM	What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	-0.026587
Oct 1, 2020 04:00AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?	-0.000191
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM	Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?	0.583421
Sep 1, 2020 01:31PM	Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?	-0.030598
Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM	What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?	0.193545
Jul 18, 2020 03:59AM	Will the U.S. government cancel or shorten the 24-month STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by July 17, 2020?	-0.011164
Jul 15, 2020 03:59AM	Will the Indian government continue the TikTok ban through July 14, 2020?	-0.001538