Launch date moved to April
-0.031322
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
It's March 31st already and after hours in N. Korea
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Japan
0%
South Korea
0%
Any other country not listed
It's too late to join given the date.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(+85%)
Yes
New poland data
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
There has been ample discussion about the difficulty of training on fighter jets, which are orders of magnitude more difficult than training on tanks (the difficulty of which is touched upon here). However, there is already evidence that in less than a month the recent tank shipment is making a dent and that Russia is generally depleting resources.
European commitment to sending fighter jets is tied to the expected outcomes and the trajectory of the war, and there isn't currently evidence of severe escalation leading to commitment of jets.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Announcements can occur in both situations where delivery may be many many months away, or sometimes don't even happen.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+7%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Because the forecasting window is open during the resolution period.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Last minute assassination
Files
28 as of this morning, some may be added later with backdating. At current rate expect 2 more.