RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	-0.000071
Apr 5, 2023 07:15PM	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	-0.000038
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023?	0.0
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?	-0.00024
Mar 17, 2023 02:12PM	Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023?	0.408869
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.00658
Feb 3, 2022 02:00PM	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?	-0.068836
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM	How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.134835
Jan 31, 2022 02:48PM	How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.045881
Jan 4, 2022 01:22PM	How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.094701
Jan 4, 2022 01:10PM	What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.048639
Jan 1, 2022 01:52PM	Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?	0.076977
Nov 18, 2021 03:56PM	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	0.045912
Nov 18, 2021 12:12PM	When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?	-0.037163
Jul 1, 2021 05:30PM	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?	0.00126