Forecasted Questions
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 22, 2023 11:30PM UTC
(11 months ago)
Dec 22, 2023 11:30PM UTC
(11 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 20% | 9% | +11% | +1% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 20% | 7% | +13% | -16% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2024 09:10PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Mar 29, 2024 09:10PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 5% | +0% | -3% |
| No | 95% | 95% | +0% | +3% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Apr 30, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
| Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2024 04:10PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jun 30, 2024 04:10PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 95% | 97% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 5% | 3% | +2% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 29, 2024 03:55PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jul 29, 2024 03:55PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 28% | +22% | +8% |
| No | 50% | 72% | -22% | -8% |
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 01:55AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 01:55AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 25% | -15% | -4% |
| No | 90% | Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 75% | +15% | +4% |