Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 03:18PM
(11 months ago)
Apr 30, 2024 03:18PM
(11 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
| Latvia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(1 month from now)
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 29, 2024 03:55PM
(8 months ago)
Jul 29, 2024 03:55PM
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 10% | +40% | -10% |
| No | 50% | 90% | -40% | +10% |
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 1, 2024 02:29AM
(4 months ago)
Dec 1, 2024 02:29AM
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 10% | 9% | +1% | -6% |
| Bolivia | 60% | 12% | +48% | -8% |
| Ecuador | 10% | 9% | +1% | -3% |
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2024 11:14PM
(3 months ago)
Dec 30, 2024 11:14PM
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 59 | 40% | 3% | +37% | +1% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 30% | 9% | +21% | +4% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 20% | 33% | -13% | +8% |
| Between 80 and 89, inclusive | 10% | 43% | -33% | -6% |
| More than or equal to 90 | 0% | 13% | -13% | -8% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(5 years from now)
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(5 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 25, 2025 06:09PM
(22 days ago)
Feb 25, 2025 06:09PM
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 6% | -1% | -2% |
| No | 95% | 94% | +1% | +2% |