begoga77

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? 0.087561
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? 0.091346
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024? 1.088195
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive? 0.449386
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined? -0.090273
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record? 0.717854
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023? -0.186646
Sep 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023? 0.924377
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM UTC Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023? -0.008839
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC In 2022, will a Chinese institution have the most "high impact" AI research publications? -0.023268
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023? 0.178508
Apr 05, 2023 07:14PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023) -0.000168
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 3, 2023 and Mar 1, 2023) 0.0
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023? -0.002828
Feb 01, 2023 06:46PM UTC Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023? -0.00136
Jan 03, 2023 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 3, 2022 and Jan 3, 2023) 0.0
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022? -0.003617
Dec 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022) -0.000767
Dec 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 3, 2022 and Dec 3, 2022) -0.000113
Nov 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022) -0.00049
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