I think it will be really difficult for China to end its strict zero Covid policy by next month - the health care system is too weak at this point to roll out an effective vaccination campaign. As much as the policy is hurting the economy, I don't think the country is equipped to steer a change this quickly.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I think it will be highly unlikely for China to be prepared to loosen its zero Covid policy on such a short timeline. I do expect it to end sometime in the future, as public fury against the authorities' excessive measures to contain Covid is rising.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
I think there is a good chance that North Korea could conduct a nuclear test by March 2023 because the country prizes on its use of nuclear deterrent for self-defense. I'm also going off of sources that speak to the country "digging a shortcut to Tunnel 3 at its previously closed nuclear test site in Punggye-ri." (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/27/north-korea-may-be-preparing-for-nuclear-test-soon-report)
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Why might you be wrong?
It's hard to predict exactly when North Korea would conduct another nuclear test. It might not be as soon as we are estimating here.
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Why do you think you're right?
From the U.S. intelligence side, there doesn't seem to be practical evidence to be confident in Putin's move to use nuclear weapons immediately in the next month. I am a bit skeptical whether it will be this quickly.
Why might you be wrong?
It's hard to be confident on either side when betting whether Russia will be bold enough to use a nuclear weapon. Even officials seem to have a hard time discerning whether he's just bluffing or not.