6th
Accuracy Rank

belikewater

About:

I started forecasting at Good Judgment Open in 2021. Here's my profile there: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/99943

Email: [email protected]

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM UTC Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024? 0.055182
Sep 11, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 11, 2023 and Sep 11, 2023) 0.003058
Sep 10, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive? 0.064802
Sep 01, 2023 09:00PM UTC How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023? -0.008167
Sep 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023? 0.000618
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will a top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company join the BOTTLE consortium as an industry partner by 31 August 2023? -0.089954
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC How many teams from the United States will compete in the 2023 iGEM Grand Jamboree? -0.002127
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022? -0.001944
Aug 21, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will 200 or more fatalities be attributed to one or more non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in the North Central and North West zones of Nigeria? -0.001899
Aug 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 20, 2023 and Aug 20, 2023) 0.000161
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil? -0.001165
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more civilian fatalities in Ethiopia? -0.000032
Jul 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 20, 2023 and Jul 20, 2023) 0.0015
Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM UTC Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023? 0.462544
Jul 02, 2023 04:00AM UTC How many “venture capital members” will be part of BioMADE at the end of June 2023? 0.001448
Jul 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023? -0.088625
Jun 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 20, 2023 and Jun 20, 2023) 0.004697
May 23, 2023 03:04PM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) 0.000111
May 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 20, 2023 and May 20, 2023) 0.006827
Apr 20, 2023 03:52PM UTC Will U.S. domestic labor demand for artificial intelligence skills equal or exceed 3.2% for December 2022? 0.004802
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