belikewater

Moving down to the crowd for Togo. Russia's interest seems to be focused on Equatorial Guinea.

Wagner/Africa Corps is supposedly recruiting people to go to Equatorial Guinea on Telegram now. So we can expect more Wagner/AC troops to show up there in a couple months or so. Last time, it was for training. This time, I think it's likely to be more. Russian Deputy Minister of Defense Yevkurov just visited Equatorial Guinea, and the two counties just signed a military cooperation agreement.

I'm raising my forecast a bit because of the actions of the Trump administration in eliminating and stonewalling a lot of NIH funding and firing NIH staff. DHHS staff have even put pressure on NIH staff to ignore court orders to restore funding and ignore their own lawyers to are telling them to obey the court orders. This is putting a wrecking ball through the lives of many, many thousands of highly skilled scientists. A lot of these people will be angry. Some of them will be mentally unhealthy and are or may become antisocial in some way. This raises the risk of bioterrorism imo.

Bioterrorism preparations could be conducted in home labs, or in domestic or foreign laboratories. When the USSR collapsed, the US very deliberately up Soviet nuclear weapons scientists to prevent nuclear weapons proliferation. In a strange reversal, albeit in a different field, with no apparent thought for the consequences, US is now unleashing legions of angry biological scientists on the world.

There have been 9 cases from Oct 1, 2024 through Feb 20, 2025 - the same number as were seen from Oct 1, 2023 through Feb 20, 2024. Based on that observation alone, I'd expect to see a number roughly comparable to last year's.

The only nationwide election currently planned in Germany in the remainder of the forecast period is the Bundestag election on Feb. 23. It will take a while for cases to show up for that. But given that the major election in 2024 was also for the Bundestag, from this additional angle, I'd expect the numbers to be similar to last year's, as well.

However, I expect this year's numbers to be a bit higher because there is a greater chance of upending the apple cart this year, so I expect Russian efforts to ramp up. I'm not sure whether that will result in more cases per se, though, as opposed to just more disinformation efforts per case.

Repeating my forecast to add a link I couldn't find yesterday to an article about a recent intelligence report from Estonia:
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/intelligence-warns-russia-preparing-for-war-with-nato/

A few salient quotes:

"EFIS analysts conclude that while “the pace of the Russian military’s rearmament will depend on the duration and outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine,” Russia is actively mobilising more resources despite the extensive losses on the battlefield. If the conflict in Ukraine were to end under terms favourable to Moscow or become a frozen conflict, the EFIS suggests that Russian forces “will be permanently stationed in more significant numbers than before 24 February 2022” along the borders of NATO member states near Russia—including Estonia."

See also: https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250219-baltic-region-prepares-war-as-russia-us-debate-ukraine-fate

"By 2026, the Kremlin reportedly aims to have a 1.5 million-strong military. Near Estonia, Russia has formed or reorganised multiple units, such as the 69th and 68th Motor Rifle Divisions, showcasing “Russia’s capacity to create large military formations in a relatively short time.”"

I'm revising my previous forecast of a Russian invasion of the Baltic states to ~80% in the next 5-10 years or so (closer to 5 than to 10), conditional on Putin remaining in power.