It's not looking very likely at the moment.
-0.205567
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
63
Forecasts
33
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 15 | 261 | 63 | 1168 |
| Comments | 0 | 15 | 133 | 69 | 307 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 13 | 52 | 27 | 123 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 110 | 33 | 535 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Mar 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-14%)
Yes
99%
(+14%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Something drastic could happen to both Apple and Microsoft.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(+8%)
Togo
75%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Why do you think you're right?
I'm going to increase my Togo forecast a bit because there are just so many indications (visits, etc.) that Russia is interested in Togo.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(0%)
Togo
75%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Why do you think you're right?
As before, I think Equatorial Guinea is likely to see an influx of Africa Corps mercenaries before the end of the year, probably in the summer. Medical personnel were seen recently:
https://x.com/venik44/status/1903821049713549431
They also released a video on March 24 of training in Equatorial Guinea:
https://x.com/nordsint/status/1904348589306069290
Files
Why might you be wrong?
EG might not pan out. And Togo might instead.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
96%
(0%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Maintaining my forecast, albeit above the crowd's.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
My forecast could be too high if Kim Jong Un just wants to stay under the radar. My forecast could be too low because Kimg Jong Un just really wants to test his new AI drone toys or otherwise take advantage of Trump's distraction elsewhere and more disarray than usual in South Korea.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Repeating my forecast. Nothing has changed to make me think otherwise at the moment.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Trump were to become belligerent against NK, Kim Jong Un could reciprocate. However, Trump is really busy elsewhere (Ukraine, Yemen, North Korea) at the moment.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2026
95%
(0%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Maintaining my forecast. I still think such an attack is exceedingly unlikely just because other means are much easier, but I don't rule out such an attack. I still maintain my earlier reasoning.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
My forecast could be too high because Russia won't attack a NATO country in this timeframe. (I do think Russia will attack a NATO country, but I think it probably won't happen for another couple years or so.) My forecast could be too low if Russia decides to test Article 5 soon and decides to pursue this path as part of their attack.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-2%)
Yes
96%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Lowering my forecast because Egypt's economy seems to be doing better at the moment, buoyed by foreign aid.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-26/egyptian-economy-grows-at-quickest-quarterly-pace-since-2022
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A year is a long time, and things could change.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Maintaining my forecast. I'm starting to think my forecast may be too high, as China is busy elsewhere. But otoh, I don't know why China isn't pushing forward on another base in Africa already;
Why might you be wrong?
.