Crisis averted, so far.
-0.069483
Relative Brier Score
666
Forecasts
338
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 11 | 12 | 333 | 194 | 1020 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 34 | 14 | 186 |
| Questions Forecasted | 10 | 10 | 61 | 42 | 106 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 4 | 96 | 44 | 458 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Oracle - Silver
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard 6 months in a row.
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(-10%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025
85%
(+10%)
No
Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(-10%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025
80%
(+10%)
No
Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025
I'm lowering my forecast because Israel is clearly trying not to provoke Iran.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(0%)
Yes
1%
(0%)
No
Maintaining my forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Yes
97%
(+1%)
No
Decreasing my forecast for the passage of time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
33%
(+8%)
Yes
67%
(-8%)
No
It seems to me that there's almost an even chance among Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 24%
0%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
2%
(-46%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
98%
(+47%)
More than or equal to 28%
Catching up to the data.
Files
Doesn't seem likely. I don't know how people in this country can go about their lives with it in its current state.